在纷繁复杂的社会关系中，警觉过度自信，理性评估你我与他人的联结，是构建和谐人际关系的基石。

In the complex and intricate social relationships, being vigilant and overly confident, and rationally assessing the connections between you, me, and others, is the foundation for building harmonious interpersonal relationships.

1. 专业的成本评估员总是低估其项目成本。一个不容忽视的问题是，即使一个项目已经临近截止日期且并不能如期完成任务，过度乐观还是会导致管理者做出报告，声称这个项目会像计划中那样如期完成。

1. Professional cost estimators always underestimate their project costs. An issue that cannot be overlooked is that even if a project is nearing its deadline and is not on track to be completed on time, excessive optimism can still lead managers to report that the project will be completed as planned.

2. 研究发现，在股票市场上，交易越是频繁，损失就越大。 投资者们频繁地在金融市场上交易，甚至更多的时候他们交易的收益，或者他们预计中的交易收益都无法用以弥补他们的交易成本。

2. The research has found that in the stock market, the more frequent the trading, the greater the loss. Investors frequently trade in the financial market, and more often than not, the profits they make from trading, or the expected profits they anticipate, are not enough to cover their trading costs.

3. 不要高估你和任何人的关系，没有一段关系是永远可靠的。靠自己，不指望任何人，才是真正的人间清醒。

3. Do not overestimate your relationship with anyone, as no relationship is ever permanent. Relying on yourself and not depending on anyone is the truest form of human clarity.

4. 这是由于过于自信的人，因为其预计的成功程度高于了其本身客观上的成功可能性而轻敌，所以这些人在应该精心准备材料，好好咨询别人意见的时候轻视松懈了。

4. This is because overconfident individuals, who expect a higher degree of success than their objectively possible success, become complacent. Therefore, when they should carefully prepare materials and seek others' opinions, they become indifferent and relaxed.

5. 过度乐观是一种非理性误区，这种非理性很难克服。

5. Over-optimism is a non-rational misconception, and it is difficult to overcome this irrationality.

6. 放下对别人的期待，允许别人不帮助你。当你懂得不依靠别人的时候，你才能真正成为自己。

6. Let go of expectations for others, and allow them not to help you. When you understand not to rely on others, you can truly become yourself.

7. 人性都是逐利的，当你有足够的价值，别人会因为利益而来。当你对别人没有价值，难免人走茶凉。不要高估你与任何人的关系，没有人是真心实意爱你的。

7. Human nature is always driven by self-interest. When you possess sufficient value, others will come to you for the sake of profit. When you have no value to others, it is inevitable that people will leave as the tea cools. Do not overestimate your relationship with anyone; no one truly loves you with all their heart.

8. 生活中很多人，当你得势的时候，他们巴结逢迎，趋之若鹜，当你失势的时候，他们趁火打劫，落井下石。《红楼梦》里的贾雨村，曾靠着贾家的势力，扶摇直上，位列朝堂。而贾家一旦败落，立即狠狠踩上一脚，作为讨好新主子的机会。

8. There are many people in life who, when you are on the rise, flatter and cater to you like a swarm of bees, but when you fall from grace, they take advantage of your misfortune to stab you in the back. In the classic novel "Dream of the Red Chamber," Jia Yucun once relied on the power of the Jia family to rise swiftly and hold a position in the court. However, as soon as the Jia family fell into decline, he immediately stepped on them hard, taking the opportunity to curry favor with the new master.

9. 决定行为的，很多时候是人对某种“标尺”的记忆，而不是真正的偏好。

9. Often, it is the memory of a certain "ruler" rather than true preferences that determines behavior.

10. 造成过于自信的一个很重要的原因就是人们很难想像事情会以什么样的方式进展。由于我们不能预见到事情可能的各种发展方向，我们就会对我们所知道的事情将来可能的发展过于自信。

10. One of the very important reasons for excessive confidence is that people find it difficult to imagine how things might progress. Because we cannot foresee the various possible directions things might take, we become overly confident in the future developments of what we already know.

11. 司马迁说：“一死一生，乃知交情。一贫一富，乃知交态。一贵一贱，交情乃现。”

11. Sima Qian said, "Only through life and death can one understand the depth of friendship. Only through poverty and wealth can one discern the true nature of friendships. Only through honor and dishonor can one reveal the true essence of friendship."

12. 01 人类是过度自信的

12.01 Humans are overly confident.

13. 设立预先干预机制，就是给自己画一个底线，设定一个奖惩机制。如果担心自己无法严格执行奖惩，可以寻求亲友的帮助，让他们监督你执行奖惩。

13. Establishing a pre-emptive intervention mechanism is like setting a bottom line for yourself and establishing a reward and punishment system. If you are worried that you may not be able to strictly enforce the rewards and punishments, you can seek the help of your family and friends to supervise you in implementing the rewards and punishments.

14. 丹·艾瑞里，美国认知心理学和商业管理双料博士，年仅31岁就成为了麻省理工学院教授。他在 TED 的演讲，有超过780万次的点击。著有经典作品《怪诞行为学》，《纽约时报》的畅销书，得到了多位诺贝尔经济学奖得主的赞赏和强烈

15. 本书引用了日常生活中的大量案例，指出人都是非理性的，会因为环境压力、社会规范和市场规范的错位等原因，做出非理性行为，从而付出金钱、时间等代价。实际上，非理性是可以预测的。理解非理性的原理，可以帮你更好地了解自己，做出正确选择。

14. Dan Ariely, a dual Ph.D. in cognitive psychology and business administration from the United States, became a professor at MIT at the young age of 31. His TED Talk has been viewed over 7.8 million times. He is the author of the classic work "Predictably Irrational," a New York Times bestseller, which has received praise and strong support from several Nobel laureates in economics. 15. This book refers to a large number of cases from daily life, pointing out that humans are irrational and may engage in irrational behavior due to factors such as environmental pressure, social norms, and the misalignment of market norms, thereby incurring costs such as money and time. In fact, irrationality is predictable. Understanding the principles of irrationality can help you better understand yourself and make the right choices.

16. 沙尔瓦·齐吉林斯基至少犯了三个在项目管理中常见的错误：

16. Szarvas Zygmuntski has at least committed three common mistakes in project management:

17. 无论是机构投资者还是个人投资者之所以没有足够的耐心等待茶叶泡出的醇香，从而导致金融市场的过于频繁交易，其中的重要原因正是人们的过于自信。投资者们过于相信自己的金融知识和判断，他们自信自己了解市场的走向；他们相信自己能够看准哪支股票会涨，哪支会跌。

17. The important reason why both institutional investors and individual investors do not have enough patience to wait for the rich aroma of tea to brew, leading to excessive trading in the financial markets, is that people are overly confident. Investors overly believe in their financial knowledge and judgments; they are confident in understanding the direction of the market; they believe they can accurately predict which stock will rise and which will fall.

18. 对于参与试验的志愿者，无论是25美元，还是10美分，那种“新型止痛药”其实都没有发挥任何药理作用，恰恰是它们的价格，就像安慰剂一样影响了人的感官，人的非理性判断认为，价格贵的一定会疗效好。

18. For the volunteers participating in the trial, whether it was $25 or 10 cents, the "new pain reliever" actually had no pharmacological effect at all. It was precisely their price, just like a placebo, that influenced people's senses, and their irrational judgment believed that the more expensive the price, the better the efficacy.

19. 俄罗斯超级富豪沙尔瓦·齐吉林斯是一个房地产开发商，他曾计划建造多个商业中心与高楼。特别是，他打算在莫斯科的克里姆林宫附近建造一座巨大的集饭店与娱乐于一体的商业中心。为了给这座商业中心腾出空地，他拆除了一座拥有3200个房间的饭店。齐吉林斯基还准备在欧洲建造最高的摩天大楼——高600米、118层的“俄罗斯塔”。不幸的是，这些失败的项目最后以红馆对街的空地和俄罗斯塔所处的空地收场。

19. Russia's super-rich tycoon Sergy Zhzhininsky is a real estate developer who had planned to build multiple commercial centers and skyscrapers. Particularly, he intended to construct a massive commercial center that combines a hotel and entertainment facilities near the Kremlin in Moscow. To make space for this commercial center, he demolished a hotel with 3,200 rooms. Zhzhininsky was also preparing to build the tallest skyscraper in Europe—a 600-meter, 118-story "Russia Tower." Unfortunately, these failed projects ended up with an empty plot opposite the Red Hall and an empty plot where the Russia Tower was supposed to be.

20. 树立信心,建立平等相处的心态。学会倾诉和分享。要学会将自己的苦闷、烦恼等不良情绪向自己的亲人或好友倾诉，摈弃自己的烦恼自己担的自闭心态。

20. Build confidence and establish an attitude of equal coexistence. Learn to express and share. You should learn to vent your distress, worries, and other negative emotions to your relatives or close friends, and abandon the自闭 (self-isolation) mindset of bearing your troubles alone.

21. 对比带来的后果，远远不止让人多买了一瓶饮料，或者约会了一个不是真正喜欢的人。

21. The consequences of comparison are far beyond just buying an extra bottle of drink or going on a date with someone you don't really like.

22. 一个实际上有50%的成功率的计划，如果经过精心的准备可以将成功概率提高到60%，但却因为过于自信认为这个计划有85%的可能性成功而不去准备，在不知不觉中就打了无准备之仗。这样一来，本来可以达到的60%的成功概率也没有达到。

22. A plan that actually has a 50% success rate can be improved to 60% with careful preparation, but because of excessive confidence that the plan has an 85% chance of success, one does not prepare, and inadvertently engages in a battle without preparation. As a result, the originally achievable 60% success rate is not reached.

23. 有经验的桥牌运动员叫牌的时候比较有把握，因为他们考虑到了各种可能的情况以及对手的出牌情况；但是比较缺乏经验的运动员就常常无法赢得自己觉得自己可以赢的牌局，原因就是他们没有考虑到各种可能的情况。

23. Experienced bridge players call bids with more confidence because they consider various possible situations and their opponents' card plays; however, less experienced players often fail to win the hands they feel they can, mainly because they do not consider all possible scenarios.

24. 防微杜渐，对自己诚实。人很少能在任何时候都绝对诚实，而这些导致不诚实的诱因很多时候是非理性的。也就是说，人会在下意识里对自己的不诚实行为视而不见。人内心的诚实尺度，只在重大越轨行为时才被激活，所以“勿以善小而不为，勿以恶小而为之”，要时刻对自己诚实。

24. Prevent the萌芽 of evil and be honest with oneself. People seldom achieve absolute honesty at any time, and the causes that lead to dishonesty are often irrational. That is to say, people tend to overlook their own dishonest behavior subconsciously. The inner scale of honesty is only activated when there are major deviations, so the saying "Do not neglect the small good and do not do the small evil" should be adhered to, and one should always be honest with oneself.

25. 决策者的过度自信，是项目管理中最常见的非理性心理误区之一，其结果是项目分析往往并不能很好地完成，也常表现为对理性分析结果的漠视。

25. Overconfidence among decision-makers is one of the most common irrational psychological misconceptions in project management. As a result, project analysis is often not completed well, and there is often a disregard for rational analytical results.

26. 齐吉林斯基对自己的资源和募集资金的能力同样也过于自信。对资源质量和数量、人力和财力的过分自信是项目管理中心理误区最常见的形式之一。

26. Zhi Jilin斯基 also had excessive confidence in his ability to mobilize resources and raise funds. Overconfidence in the quality and quantity of resources, as well as in human and financial capabilities, is one of the most common forms of psychological误区 in project management.

27. 无视职业发展规划：年轻人有时候缺乏对职业发展的规划和目标。他们应该认识到职业发展是一个有计划的过程，制定清晰的目标并为之努力。

27. Neglecting career development planning: Sometimes young people lack planning and goals for their career development. They should recognize that career development is a planned process, and set clear goals while striving for them.

28. MBA二年级的学生会高估获取工作机会的数量和开始的薪酬水平。

28. MBA second-year students tend to overestimate the number of job opportunities and the starting salary levels.

29. 急功近利的心态：年轻人通常希望迅速获得成功和晋升，但职场是一个长期发展的过程。他们需要树立正确的期望，持之以恒地努力工作，并愿意为自己的职业道路付出时间和努力。

29. The attitude of haste and desire for immediate gain: Young people often hope to achieve success and promotion quickly, but the workplace is a process of long-term development. They need to establish correct expectations, work hard consistently, and be willing to invest time and effort in their career path.

30. 和缺少知识和经验的人相比，具备系统知识和丰富经验的人不太容易犯过于自信的毛病，因为他们更多地知道事情发展的多样性。

30. Compared to those who lack knowledge and experience, people with systematic knowledge and rich experience are less prone to the flaw of overconfidence because they are more aware of the diversity of how things unfold.

31. 改变内向性格的方法1树立信心,建立平等相处的心态。正确的认识自己，即不要高估自己，过度自信、自命清高而看不起旁人不与他人交往；也不要小瞧自己，过分自卑而怕与人交往。既要要正确看待自己的优缺点，也要正视他人的优势与劣势，建立与他人平等相处的心态，树立良好的人际交往信心。小贴士：男士剪个帅一点的发型，女士化个淡妆，把自己打扮得精神一点，可以提高自己的自信哦。2学会倾诉和分享。要学会将自己的苦闷、烦恼等不良情绪向自己的亲人或好友倾诉，摈弃自己的烦恼自己担的自闭心态。

31. Methods to change an introverted personality: 1. Build self-confidence and establish an attitude of equal interaction. Properly understand yourself, neither overestimate yourself, become overly confident and haughty, looking down upon others and avoiding social interaction; nor undervalue yourself, become overly inferior and afraid of social interaction. You should correctly perceive your own strengths and weaknesses, also face others' advantages and disadvantages, establish an attitude of equal interaction with others, and build good confidence in interpersonal relationships. Tip: Men can get a stylish haircut, and women can apply a light makeup, dress up to look more spirited, which can enhance your self-confidence. 2. Learn to vent and share. Learn to express your distress, worries, and other negative emotions to your relatives or close friends, discard the自闭 (self-closed) mindset of bearing your troubles alone.

32. 大多数吸烟者认为，和其他吸烟者相比，他们染上与吸烟相关疾病的风险要小。

32. Most smokers believe that compared to other smokers, they have a lower risk of developing diseases related to smoking.

33. 马尔克斯在《百年孤独》中写道：“人生的实质，就是一个人活着，不要对他人心存太多期待。”

33. In "One Hundred Years of Solitude," García Márquez wrote: "The essence of life is to live, not to have too many expectations of others."

34. 很多时候当出现“免费”两个字，人们就容易被引诱，从而无法理性思考免费的代价。甚至在一些情况下，人们会为了免费的东西，放弃更好的选择。

34. Many times, when the words "free" appear, people are easily lured, thus unable to rationally think about the cost of free. Even in some cases, people may give up better choices for free things.

35. 在项目管理中，过度乐观会影响许多不同类型管理的评估。

35. In project management, over-optimism can affect the assessment of many different types of management.