未来几年，最具前瞻性的生活策略：经济衰退前的准备之道。

The most forward-thinking life strategy in the coming years: the path to preparation before the economic downturn.

1. 普通人挣钱变得难了，说明钱越来越重要了，一定要管住自己的消费欲望，先储蓄，后消费，这样才能够在经济萧条时期稳着陆。

1. It's getting harder for ordinary people to make money, which indicates that money is becoming increasingly important. One must control one's desire for consumption, prioritize saving over spending, so that one can land safely during economic downturns.

2. 我只看到了世界不停息的纷繁复杂的变化，而丹尼尔·伯勒斯告诉我：“万事万物的变化皆有规律，可以通过两种显著的变化来寻找确定性：周期性变化和线性变化。”

2. I only saw the ceaseless and complex changes in the world, but Daniel Burrows told me, "The changes of all things have their own laws, and we can seek certainty through two significant types of changes: periodic changes and linear changes."

3. 2009年，在美国正经历20世纪30年代以来最严重的经济衰退之时，丹尼尔·伯勒斯以自己为样本，进行创业实验，来验证自己准备著述的远见力原则。他一边写作，一边实践自身总结出的原则，建立了“愿景应用程序公司”，并获得了可观的营业收入。他写作的这本书就是——《理解未来的7个原则：如何看到不可见，做到不可能》(Flash Foresight:How to see the invisible and do the impossible)，书中介绍了作者二十五年来，一直研究和系统地应用的触发远见力的7个原则：（

3. In 2009, amidst the worst economic recession since the 1930s in the United States, Daniel Burrus conducted an entrepreneurial experiment on himself to test the principles of foresight he was preparing to write about. While writing, he applied the principles he had summarized to practice, established "Vision Applications Company," and achieved considerable operating revenue. The book he wrote is titled "Flash Foresight: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossible," which introduces the seven principles of foresight that the author has been researching and systematically applying over the past 25 years:

4. 股神巴菲特说：为什么我会比世界首富比尔盖茨拥有更多的钱？因为我比他更会储蓄，这是上天对我勤俭的奖赏。

4. Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, said: "Why do I have more money than the world's richest man, Bill Gates? Because I am better at saving, and this is God's reward for my thriftiness."

5. 线性变化与周期性变化截然不同，线性变化的模式是非周期性的、渐进的，它变化的方向是单一的而不是循环往复的。人衰老、全球人口增长、知识的增长、电脑运算速度加快、全球化……这些都呈线性变化，线性变化是迷人的：“它创造出全新的独一无二的环境与机会。若能掌握线性变化，就能让未来无形变有形。”

5. Linear changes are fundamentally different from periodic changes. The pattern of linear changes is aperiodic and gradual, with a single direction of change rather than a repetitive cycle. The aging of humanity, the growth of the global population, the growth of knowledge, the acceleration of computer processing speed, globalization... all of these exhibit linear changes. Linear changes are fascinating: "They create entirely new and unique environments and opportunities. If one can master linear changes, they can transform the intangible into the tangible for the future."

6. 身体是革命的本钱。

6. The body is the capital of revolution.

7. 尽管失业可能是一段痛苦的经历，但它也为我们提供了新的机遇和学习经验。我们必须坚定信心，积极面对挑战，持之以恒地寻找新的工作机会，这将成为我们重回就业市场的关键。

7. Although unemployment may be a painful experience, it also provides us with new opportunities and learning experiences. We must maintain our confidence, actively face the challenges, and persistently seek new job opportunities, which will be the key to our return to the job market.

8. 经济环境越是不好，我们越应该努力自强。

8. The worse the economic environment is, the harder we should strive to be self-reliant.

9. 增强自身竞争力：可以通过学习新技能、提高语言水平、增加工作经验等方式来提高自己的竞争力，增加找工作成功的概率。可以考虑参加培训课程、在线学习、实习或志愿工作等方式来增加自己的经验。

9. Enhance personal competitiveness: One can improve their competitiveness by learning new skills, enhancing language proficiency, and gaining more work experience, thereby increasing the chances of finding a job successfully. Consider participating in training courses, online learning, internships, or volunteer work to accumulate more experience.

10. 亲自践行了自己提出的触发远见力的原则，获得成功。

10. By personally practicing the principles he proposed to trigger foresight, he achieved success.

11. 英国作家王尔德说，年轻的时候，我认为金钱很重要，现在我老了，才知道的确如此。

11. The British writer Wilde once said, "When I was young, I thought money was important; now that I am old, I know it truly is."

12. 由确定性开始，从硬趋势可以预测事物将如何发展、怎样变化；而在软趋势之中，我们能发现机会，如果加以转变的要素，融合远见力的原则，就能引领未来塑造更美好的生活。丹尼尔·伯勒斯创办的愿景应用程序公司就是最好的例子。正如他自己分析的：“因为我们预见了科学技术变革的趋势，掌握了确定性；因为我们跳过应用程序现有的限制，利用一切机会反其道而行；因为我们不断反问自己，如何能够重新定义和再创造，所以我们在八个月内，就成立了全新的公司，不仅获得了可观的营业收入，更能无限拓展。”

12. Starting from determinism, hard trends allow us to predict how things will develop and change; whereas in soft trends, we can find opportunities. If we incorporate elements of transformation, blend principles of foresight, we can lead the future to shape a better life. The Vision App Company founded by Daniel Burrus is the best example. As he himself analyzed: "Because we foresaw the trends of technological change and mastered determinism; because we bypassed the existing limitations of applications and utilized every opportunity to do the opposite; because we continuously asked ourselves how we could redefine and reinvent, we established a completely new company in just eight months, not only achieving considerable operating revenue but also expanding infinitely."

13. 在经济形势很不好，很多行业的红利已经耗尽，社会上的资源越来越少，老百姓切实感受到：工作难找，钱难挣，投资风险高，生活压力大。甚至一些经济学家预测，接下来几年才是真正的经济寒冬。普通人最有远见的活法，是构建长远思维，坚持做好三件事。

13. Given the poor economic situation, with many industries' dividends exhausted, and resources on the decline in society, people are genuinely feeling that it's hard to find jobs, earn money, face high investment risks, and experience immense pressure in life. Some economists even predict that the next few years will be the real winter of the economy. The most visionary way for ordinary people to live is to cultivate long-term thinking and consistently do three things well.

14. 8建立社交圈：建立稳定的社交圈可以增加自身获取就业机会的机会。可以通过加入社区组织、参与志愿者活动、加入职业相关的社交网络等方式来建立社交圈。

14. 8 Build a social circle: Establishing a stable social circle can increase the opportunities for obtaining employment. Social circles can be built by joining community organizations, participating in volunteer activities, and joining professional-related social networks, among other methods.

15. 其次，我们的身体棒了，才能扛住人生的责任。尤其是中年人，上有老，下有小，前面是繁杂的工作，后面是需要自己支撑的家庭，如果身体不行了，倒下去了，不仅是经济上的灾难，而是一个家庭的全部灾难。

15. Secondly, only when our bodies are strong can we bear the responsibilities of life. Especially for middle-aged people, with elderly parents above and children below, facing complex work ahead and a family that needs their support behind, if their bodies fail and they fall, it's not just an economic disaster but the entire disaster for the family.

16. 意大利经济学家卢西亚诺·卡诺瓦说：“构建长远思维，才能建立起对危机的防火墙。”

16. Italian economist Luciano Canova said, "Only by developing long-term thinking can we build a firewall against crises."

17. 丹尼尔·伯勒斯(Daniel Burrus)——未来学家。未来学家？看到这儿，我是哑然失笑的，在我的记忆里，预测未来的人有：看八字的、翻塔罗牌的、算卦的……难道这些人组建了新学科？算得好的人也能冠以“学家”的称呼了？胡思乱想着，手指敲打键盘上网搜出的结果是：未来学家指那些推测未来的人。具体来说，是指一些科学家或社会科学家系统的预测未来。

17. Daniel Burrus——Futurist. Futurist? I couldn't help but burst into laughter upon seeing this. In my memory, people who predict the future include those who read fortunes, those who read Tarot cards, and those who cast divinations... Are these people forming a new discipline? Can those who are good at it also be called "ists"? While daydreaming, I typed on the keyboard and searched the internet, and the result was: a futurist refers to those who speculate on the future. Specifically, it refers to some scientists or social scientists who systematically predict the future.

18. 译者：金丽鑫，美国普渡大学工商管理硕士，北京大学外国语学院英语系硕士，北京大学软件与微电子学院硕士。曾在中国农业部国际合作司从事外事口译和笔译工作，另在美国普渡大学承担中美科学技术翻译工作及口译工作。

18. Translator: Jin Lixin, Master of Business Administration from Purdue University, Master of Arts in English from the Department of English, School of Foreign Languages, Peking University, and Master of Software and Microelectronics from the School of Software and Microelectronics, Peking University. Has worked as a translator and interpreter in the Department of International Cooperation of the Ministry of Agriculture of China, and also conducted translation and interpreting work related to Sino-American science and technology at Purdue University.

19. 经济形势不好，身体就显得更加重要。不生病就是在挣钱。现在医疗价格非常高昂，且不说重特大疾病，哪怕你头疼脑热，发烧感冒，简单去开点药，输几次点滴，大几百块就没有了。身体哪里不舒服一些，去做一些检查，大几千块就没有了。这几年本来钱就很难挣，拥有一个好身体，就堵住了乱花钱的机会。

19. In a poor economic situation, health becomes even more important. Not getting sick is equivalent to making money. Medical costs are extremely high now, not to mention serious and major diseases. Even if you just have a headache, fever, or a cold, simply buying some medicine and getting a few drips can cost several hundred yuan. If there's something uncomfortable with your body, and you have some checks done, it can cost several thousand yuan. In recent years, money has been hard to earn, and having a good body blocks the opportunity to spend money carelessly.

20. 从确定性开始，使用硬趋势预测具备可行性，普通人也可以预测未来；

20. Starting from determinism, using hard trends to predict the future is feasible, and ordinary people can also predict the future.

21. 守住能量，才能让自己的人生一帆风顺，行稳致远。

21. By conserving energy, one can ensure a smooth and successful life journey, moving steadily towards the future.

22. 在看《理解未来的7个原则：如何看到不可见，做到不可能》这本书之前，我是不相信未来是可以预测的，因为这世界日新月异，在不断的变化中如何能预测未来？而丹尼尔·伯勒斯告诉我：“你可以精确的预测未来。你要做的就是把可能猜错的部分删去。”“当你删去可能猜错的部分，剩下的正确部分足以起到很大作用。”听起来有点儿像学生时代老师总教导我的：“考试的时候，不要马虎，把你会的都做对，成绩就不会差。”但是，这是预测未来啊？有什么是我知道一定会发生的丹尼尔·伯勒斯说：“我们对未来的了解远高出自己的所想，只需知道往何处看。”

22. Before reading the book "The 7 Principles of Understanding the Future: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossible," I didn't believe that the future could be predicted, because this world is ever-changing, and how can one predict the future amidst constant changes? Daniel Burrus told me, "You can precisely predict the future. All you need to do is to eliminate the parts that you might guess wrong." "When you eliminate the parts that you might guess wrong, the remaining correct parts are enough to play a significant role." It sounds a bit like what my teachers always taught me in school: "During exams, don't be careless, just do the questions you know well, and your score won't be bad." But is this predicting the future? What do I know for sure will happen? Daniel Burrus says, "Our understanding of the future is far beyond what we imagine, it's just a matter of knowing where to look."

23. 丹尼尔·伯勒斯作为一名未来学家，发布的很多预言都已经实现,譬如：将会发生数字革命、光纤会成为宽频数据传输媒介的选择、商业将广泛受益于互联网、社交媒体和社交媒体营销将走向移动化……他专注于科学和创新领域的长期发展趋势，为《财富》世界500强企业的CEO们提供建议，帮助他们发现创新机会、解决经营难题。微软、宝洁、迪士尼及IBM等公司都是他的忠实客户。丹尼尔·伯勒斯还成功创业并妥善经营着6家企业。

23. Daniel Burrows, as a futurist, has seen many of his predictions come to fruition, such as: the occurrence of the digital revolution, fiber optics becoming the choice for wideband data transmission, commerce widely benefiting from the internet, and social media and social media marketing moving towards mobilization... He focuses on the long-term trends in the fields of science and innovation, providing advice to the CEOs of the Fortune Global 500 companies, helping them discover innovative opportunities and solve business challenges. Companies like Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, Disney, and IBM are all loyal clients of his. Daniel Burrows has also successfully started and managed six businesses.

24. 最后，让我们归纳一下丹尼尔·伯勒斯这位未来学家的靠谱之处：

24. Finally, let's summarize the reliable aspects of Daniel Burrows, this futurist:

25. 非正式就业：可以考虑暂时从事兼职、临时工作、自由职业、代理销售等非正式的就业形式，先暂时度过难关。

25. Informal employment: Consider engaging in part-time jobs, temporary work, freelancing, agency sales, and other informal employment forms temporarily to get through the tough times.

26. 6改善财务状况：失业后财务状况可能会受到很大影响，需要及时采取措施应对。可以考虑重新规划家庭预算，减少开支，寻找附加收入源等。

26. 6 Improving Financial Condition: After unemployment, financial status may be significantly affected, and timely measures need to be taken to address it. Considerations may include re-planning the family budget, reducing expenses, and seeking additional income sources.

27. 有钱走遍天下，没钱寸步难行。我们的吃穿住行，衣食冷暖，生老病死，人情世故，没有一样不需要金钱的支持，如果我们一无所有，拿什么去赡养老人？拿什么去抚养孩子？拿什么去经营自己的家庭和感情？

27. Money can travel anywhere, but without it, one can't move an inch. Our eating, dressing, housing, transportation, warmth and coldness, our birth, old age, illness, and death, and social interactions all require the support of money. If we have nothing, what will we use to support our elderly? What will we use to raise our children? What will we use to manage our own family and relationships?

28. 问题是，对于一个普通人来说，先不管努力能不能改变命运，最起码你得活下去吧，如果你不努力，哪里来的钱，你自己和家人如何活下去呢？所以我们必须努力，不是有没有前途的问题，而是能不能顺利活下去的问题。

28. The question is, for an ordinary person, regardless of whether effort can change one's destiny, at the very least, you have to survive, right? If you don't work hard, where will the money come from, and how will you and your family survive? Therefore, we must strive not because of the issue of whether there is a future, but whether we can survive smoothly.

29. 当我们看新闻获悉AlphaGo战胜李世石，可以预测出人工智能将会在越来越多的领域取代人类，因为科技进步是线性变化，也是硬趋势。但是，人工智能的普及具体在什么时候，以及率先在哪些领域全面取代人类？我们不知道，这是软趋势。

29. When we learn from the news that AlphaGo has defeated Lee Sedol, it can be predicted that artificial intelligence will replace humans in more and more fields, as technological progress is linear and also a hard trend. However, when exactly artificial intelligence will become widespread, and in which fields it will first completely replace humans, we do not know, which is a soft trend.

30. 据不完全统计，人类已经找出300个显著的周期性变化，譬如：日与夜、季节更替、潮汐和月相、经济衰退及股票价格波动等等。“1998年至2000年期间，高科技产生了泡沫。2000年3月，纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，聪明的投资人遵守巴菲特的名言‘在别人贪婪时要恐惧，在别人恐惧时要贪婪’，出清手中的科技股，态度转为保守。同样道理，股市中2008年崩盘时，大多数股民惊慌失措，纷纷抛售所持股票证券，聪明的投资人却悄悄买进重挫的金融股。为什么？因为他们知道股市势必会发生周期变化。这不是猜测，而是确定性。”

30. According to incomplete statistics, humans have identified 300 significant periodic changes, such as: the alternation of day and night, the change of seasons, tides and phases of the moon, economic recessions, and fluctuations in stock prices, etc. "During the period from 1998 to 2000, the high-tech industry produced a bubble. In March 2000, the NASDAQ index reached a historical high. Smart investors followed Warren Buffett's maxim, 'Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,' and sold off their technology stocks, shifting to a conservative stance. Similarly, when the stock market collapsed in 2008, most investors were panic-stricken and sold off their stocks and securities in a hurry. In contrast, smart investors quietly bought heavily beaten-down financial stocks. Why? Because they knew that the stock market would inevitably undergo periodic changes. This is not a guess, but certainty."

31. 自主创业：失业也是一个机会，可以考虑自主创业，创业也不一定需要大量资金。可以从自己的兴趣和技能出发，寻找商机，开展小型创业项目。

31. Self-employment: Unemployment can also be an opportunity to consider self-employment. Starting a business doesn't necessarily require a large amount of capital. You can start from your own interests and skills, look for business opportunities, and launch small-scale entrepreneurial projects.

32. 寻找新工作：可以通过向朋友、亲戚、前同事等人求职，或者通过网络招聘网站、社交媒体等渠道主动寻找新的工作机会。

32. Seeking a New Job: You can look for a new job by asking friends, relatives, former colleagues, etc., or by actively searching for new job opportunities through channels such as online recruitment websites, social media, etc.

33. 寻求帮助：如果情况比较严重，可以尝试向社会援助网络、就业服务中心等机构申请失业救济金、补贴或获得就业支持等服务。

33. Seeking Help: If the situation is more serious, you can try to apply for unemployment benefits, subsidies, or services such as employment support from social assistance networks, employment service centers, and other institutions.

34. 现在经济形势不景气，经济大萧条或将到来，我们随时都可能丢掉工作，哪怕是铁饭碗，说不定什么时候就降薪了，而生活条件越来越高，生活开支越来越大，我们必须要捂紧自己的钱袋子，任何时候都要在手头上有足够的积蓄，以应对变幻莫测的时代风云，以及说不定什么时候发生的人生危机。

34. Currently, the economic situation is bleak, and a major economic depression may be on the horizon. We could potentially lose our jobs at any time, even if we have a secure job. There's always a possibility of salary cuts. With the increasing cost of living and rising expenses, we must tighten our financial belts and ensure we have enough savings at all times to cope with the unpredictable changes in the era's风云, as well as to face unexpected personal crises that may arise at any moment.

35. 多年来，他发布的很多预言都得以实现（详见附表）；

35. Over the years, many of his prophecies have come true (see attached table for details).

36. 有人说，有人出生就在罗马，有人出生就是骡马，努力改变不了命运，不如潇潇洒洒过日子！

36. Some say, "Some are born in Rome, and some are born as mules and horses. Efforts cannot change one's destiny, so why not live carefree and enjoy life!"

37. 从这两种显著变化出发，我们可以开始尝试预测趋势，即某件事发展或改变的大致方向。丹尼尔·伯勒斯将趋势分为两种：硬趋势和软趋势。“硬趋势是基于可测量、可感知、可预测的事实、事物或客体得出的推测；软趋势则是根据似乎看得到、似乎可预测的统计得出的推测。硬趋势绝对会实现，是未来的定数；软趋势是可能会发生的、未来的变数。”

37. Starting from these two significant changes, we can begin to try to predict trends, that is, the approximate direction in which something will develop or change. Daniel Burrows divides trends into two types: hard trends and soft trends. "Hard trends are conjectures based on measurable, perceptible, and predictable facts, things, or objects; soft trends are conjectures based on statistics that seem visible and predictable. Hard trends are absolutely certain to happen and are a constant of the future; soft trends are possible and variables of the future."

38. 7维护心理健康：失业往往会对个人的心理造成较大的影响，需要及时进行心理调节。可以通过和亲友交流、参加兴趣爱好活动、注意身体健康等来维护心理健康。

38. 7 Maintaining Mental Health: Unemployment often has a significant impact on an individual's mental health, and timely psychological adjustment is needed. Mental health can be maintained through communication with family and friends, participating in hobbies and interests, and paying attention to physical health.